满清收继婚习俗的遭禁与存留

收继婚习俗历史悠久，形式不一，在我国古代各个民族不同历史阶段都有不同形式的表现。许多史料表明，在传统伦理道德的影响下，几乎历代政府和民间人士都大加挞伐，清朝政府更是屡屡禁止。但是，事实证明对收继婚风俗的消除与禁绝并没有收到应有的效果。     

Estimating Benchmark Concentrations and Other Noncancer Endpoints in Epidemiology Studies

Methods for evaluating the hazards associated with noncancer responses with epidemiologic data are considered. The methods for noncancer risk assessment have largely been developed for experimental data, and are not always suitable for the more complex structure of epidemiologic data. In epidemiology, the measurement of the response and the exposure is often either continuous or dichotomous. For a continuous noncancer response modeled with multiple regression, a variety of endpoints may be examined: (1) the concentration associated with absolute or relative decrements in response; (2) a threshold concentration associated with no change in response; and (3) the concentration associated with a particular added risk of impairment. For a dichotomous noncancer response modeled with logistic regression, concentrations associated with specified added/extra risk or with a threshold responses may be estimated. No-observed-effect concentrations may also be estimated for categorizations of exposures for both continuous and dichotomous responses but these may depend on the arbitrary categories chosen. Respiratory function in miners exposed to coal dust is used to illustrate these methods.     

Modeling low birth weights using threshold regression: results for U. S. birth data

Babies born live under 2,500 g or with a gestational age under 37 weeks are often inadequately developed and have elevated risks of infant mortality, congenital malformations, mental retardation, and other physical and neurological impairments. In this paper, we model birth weight as a first hitting time (FHT) of a birthing boundary in a Wiener process representing fetal development. We associate the parameters of the process and boundary with covariates describing maternal characteristics and the birthing environment using a relatively new regression methodology called threshold regression. Two FHT models for birth weight are developed. One is a mixture model and the other a competing risks model. These models are tested in a case demonstration using a 4%-systematic sample of the more than four million live births in the United States in 2002. An extensive data set for these births was provided by the National Center for Health Statistics. The focus of this paper is on the conceptual framework, models and methodology. A full empirical study is deferred to a later occasion.     

Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality

This paper considers the modelling of mortality rates classified by age, time, and small area with a view to developing life table parameters relevant to assessing trends in inequalities in life chances. In particular, using a fully Bayes perspective, one may assess the stochastic variation in small area life table parameters, such as life expectancies, and also formally assess whether trends in indices of inequality in mortality are significant. Modelling questions include choice between random walk priors for age and time effects as against non-linear regression functions, questions of identifiability when several random effects are present in the death rates model, and the choice of model when both within and out-of-sample performance may be important. A case study application involves 44 small areas in North East London and mortality in five sub-periods (1986-88, 1989-91, 1992-94, 1995-97, 1998-2000) between 1986 and 2000, with the final period used for assessing out-of-sample performance.     

对我国环境影响评价中公众参与的思考

公众参与对于环境影响评价的实施有着至关重要的意义。我国新出台的《环境影响评价法》有关公众参与的内容和程序方面的规定明显不足 ,扩大公众参与的范围 ,设计尽可能明确具体的公众参与程序 ,尤其是相当重要的信息公开程序、说明会程序、听证程序、环境影响评价文件审查程序等 ,并辅之以司法审查的保障机制 ,才能完善我国环境影响评价中的公众参与制度 ,从而使环境影响评价在实践中真正发挥作用     

中国银行业竞争战略研究

中国正式加入WTO对于处于金融变革时期的中国银行业而言 ,既面临着巨大的挑战和竞争 ,又面临着巨大的发展空间 ,机遇与挑战并存 ,如何应对这种超竞争环境 ,制定行之有效的竞争战略 ,提高中国银行业的内外竞争力 ,就成为亟待解决的问题。     

目击记忆中的检索效应问题

目击记忆中的检索问题在国外应用心理学,特别是证人心理学中早有研究。目击记忆的信息检索受多种因素的影响。目击取证中影响事件检索的主要因素是特征编码效应,干扰效应,检索策略效应。具体而言,特征编码效应是指:(1)原来的场景以物理或心理的形式恢复目击者应能回忆出更多的细节;(2)某条线索不能提取的细节可由另一线索提取;(3)事件编码依赖个体的特性。干扰效应则主要包括:(1)相关事件对靶事件检索的干扰;(2)社会反应偏向的干扰影响。检索策略效应是指:(1)考虑情境内容和来源有助于恢复记忆;(2)细节的记忆促进靶事件的提取;(3)元记忆控制策略;(4)系统组织化有利于检索信息。     

Science Policy Choices and the Estimation of Cancer Risk Associated with Exposure to TCDD

United States regulatory agencies use no-threshold models for estimating carcinogenic risks. Other countries use no-threshold models for carcinogens that are genotoxic and threshold models for carcinogens that are not genotoxic, such as 2, 3, 7, 8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD or "dioxin"). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a revision of the carcinogenic potency estimate for TCDD that is based on neither a threshold nor a no-threshold model; instead, it is a compromise between risk numbers generated by the two irreconcilably different models. This paper discusses the revision and its implications.     

论回族在构建和谐社会中的积极作用

本文结合回族历史及中阿文化交融来详细论述回族在当今构建社会主义和谐社会中的积极因素,在阐述回族顺利融入中华的历史背景和文化结合基因之后,重点对回族人善于沟通交融的社交能力,回族人平等有序的社会价值观,回族人守护信仰家园的精神富足,回族人重视生殖健康和戒烟戒酒的良好习惯,回族人宽容别人、自觉律己的道德品格,回族人无私“散给”、助人为乐的精神境界六大方面加以例述,最后阐释回族对伊斯兰教义的合理阐发和创新性运用以及回族的发展实践对与时俱进的中国特色民族宗教理论的贡献。